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Dos Hermanas vs San Roque Lepe — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Dos Hermanas
Dos Hermanas
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
San Roque Lepe
San Roque Lepe
11/16/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Dos Hermanas60%
×Draw23%
San Roque Lepe18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dos Hermanas
1.81
San Roque Lepe
0.86

Dos Hermanas creates 110% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 61 away

creates per match

Dos Hermanas
2.35
San Roque Lepe
0.97

allows per match

Dos Hermanas
0.76
San Roque Lepe
1.28

finishing

Dos Hermanas+0.00on par
San Roque Lepe+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dos Hermanas ↓

San Roque Lepe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Dos Hermanas or draw
82%
Dos Hermanas or San Roque Lepe
77%
Draw or San Roque Lepe
40%

Winning margin

Dos Hermanas wins by 2+
34%
San Roque Lepe wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dos Hermanas 1+ goals
84%
Dos Hermanas 2+ goals
54%
Dos Hermanas 3+ goals
27%
San Roque Lepe 1+ goals
58%
San Roque Lepe 2+ goals
21%
San Roque Lepe 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Dos Hermanas (draw refunded)
77%
San Roque Lepe (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dos Hermanas at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

San Roque Lepe away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.28 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dos Hermanas attack 2.35 + San Roque Lepe defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.81

San Roque Lepe attack 0.97 + Dos Hermanas defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Dos Hermanas scores more
60%
level
23%
San Roque Lepe scores more
18%

Dos Hermanas at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Dos Hermanas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dos Hermanas vs San Roque Lepe

Dos Hermanas beat San Roque Lepe 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on November 16, 2025.