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Dos Hermanas vs Recreativo Huelva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Dos Hermanas
Dos Hermanas
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Recreativo Huelva
Recreativo Huelva
12/7/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Dos Hermanas55%
×Draw24%
Recreativo Huelva22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dos Hermanas
1.75
Recreativo Huelva
1.00

Dos Hermanas creates 75% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 33 away

creates per match

Dos Hermanas
2.35
Recreativo Huelva
1.24

allows per match

Dos Hermanas
0.76
Recreativo Huelva
1.15

finishing

Dos Hermanas+0.00on par
Recreativo Huelva+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dos Hermanas ↓

Recreativo Huelva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dos Hermanas or draw
78%
Dos Hermanas or Recreativo Huelva
76%
Draw or Recreativo Huelva
45%

Winning margin

Dos Hermanas wins by 2+
31%
Recreativo Huelva wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dos Hermanas 1+ goals
83%
Dos Hermanas 2+ goals
52%
Dos Hermanas 3+ goals
25%
Recreativo Huelva 1+ goals
63%
Recreativo Huelva 2+ goals
26%
Recreativo Huelva 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dos Hermanas (draw refunded)
72%
Recreativo Huelva (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dos Hermanas at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Recreativo Huelva away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.15 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dos Hermanas attack 2.35 + Recreativo Huelva defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.75

Recreativo Huelva attack 1.24 + Dos Hermanas defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Dos Hermanas scores more
55%
level
24%
Recreativo Huelva scores more
22%

Dos Hermanas at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Dos Hermanas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Dos Hermanas 2–0 Recreativo Huelva

Dos Hermanas beat Recreativo Huelva 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on December 7, 2025.