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Dos Hermanas vs Conil — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Dos Hermanas
Dos Hermanas
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Conil
Conil
10/5/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Dos Hermanas65%
×Draw21%
Conil14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dos Hermanas
1.98
Conil
0.79

Dos Hermanas creates 151% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 111 away

creates per match

Dos Hermanas
2.35
Conil
0.81

allows per match

Dos Hermanas
0.76
Conil
1.60

finishing

Dos Hermanas+0.00on par
Conil+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dos Hermanas ↓

Conil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dos Hermanas or draw
86%
Dos Hermanas or Conil
79%
Draw or Conil
35%

Winning margin

Dos Hermanas wins by 2+
40%
Conil wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Dos Hermanas 1+ goals
86%
Dos Hermanas 2+ goals
59%
Dos Hermanas 3+ goals
31%
Conil 1+ goals
55%
Conil 2+ goals
19%
Conil 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dos Hermanas (draw refunded)
82%
Conil (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dos Hermanas at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Conil away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.60 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dos Hermanas attack 2.35 + Conil defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.98

Conil attack 0.81 + Dos Hermanas defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Dos Hermanas scores more
65%
level
21%
Conil scores more
14%

Dos Hermanas at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Dos Hermanas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dos Hermanas vs Conil

Conil beat Dos Hermanas 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on October 5, 2025.