Dorostol 0–1 Volov Shumen: Result & Stats

Dorostol

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Volov Shumen

4/25/2026

Third League - Northeast · Northeast - 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Dorostol46%

×Draw24%

Volov Shumen30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DorostolExpected goals in this matchVolov Shumen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.35

Dorostol

1.71

Volov Shumen

1.35

Dorostol creates 27% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 55 away

1.06

creates per match

1.22

1.49

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Dorostol

1.06

Volov Shumen

1.22

allows per match

Dorostol

1.49

Volov Shumen

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dorostol+0.00on par

Volov Shumen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dorostol ↓

Volov Shumen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Dorostol or draw

70%

Dorostol or Volov Shumen

76%

Draw or Volov Shumen

54%

Winning margin

Dorostol wins by 2+

24%

Volov Shumen wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Dorostol 1+ goals

82%

Dorostol 2+ goals

51%

Dorostol 3+ goals

24%

Volov Shumen 1+ goals

74%

Volov Shumen 2+ goals

39%

Volov Shumen 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Dorostol (draw refunded)

60%

Volov Shumen (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dorostol at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.49 · 84 matches

Volov Shumen away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.35 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dorostol attack 1.06 + Volov Shumen defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.71

Volov Shumen attack 1.22 + Dorostol defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dorostol scores more

46%

level

24%

Volov Shumen scores more

30%

Dorostol at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dorostol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff