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Dorostol vs Svetkavitsa Targovishte — Third League - Northeast 2018

Dorostol
Dorostol
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
5/19/2024Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 28Stadion Dorostol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Dorostol44%
×Draw24%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dorostol
1.68
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
1.39

Dorostol creates 21% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 105 away

creates per match

Dorostol
1.06
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
1.29

allows per match

Dorostol
1.49
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
2.30

finishing

Dorostol+0.00on par
Svetkavitsa Targovishte+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dorostol ↓

Svetkavitsa Targovishte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dorostol or draw
68%
Dorostol or Svetkavitsa Targovishte
76%
Draw or Svetkavitsa Targovishte
56%

Winning margin

Dorostol wins by 2+
23%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dorostol 1+ goals
81%
Dorostol 2+ goals
50%
Dorostol 3+ goals
24%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 1+ goals
75%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 2+ goals
40%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Dorostol (draw refunded)
58%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dorostol at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.49 · 84 matches

Svetkavitsa Targovishte away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.30 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dorostol attack 1.06 + Svetkavitsa Targovishte defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.68

Svetkavitsa Targovishte attack 1.29 + Dorostol defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dorostol scores more
44%
level
24%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte scores more
32%

Dorostol at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dorostol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dorostol vs Svetkavitsa Targovishte

Dorostol beat Svetkavitsa Targovishte 4-1 in Third League - Northeast on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Dorostol in Silistra.