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Dorostol vs Shumen 2007 — Third League - Northeast 2018

Dorostol
Dorostol
FT
1 – 0
Shumen 2007
Shumen 2007
5/5/2021Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 26Stadion Louis Eyer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Dorostol28%
×Draw23%
Shumen 200749%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dorostol
1.29
Shumen 2007
1.77

Shumen 2007 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 36 away

creates per match

Dorostol
1.06
Shumen 2007
2.06

allows per match

Dorostol
1.49
Shumen 2007
1.53

finishing

Dorostol+0.00on par
Shumen 2007+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dorostol ↓

Shumen 2007 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dorostol or draw
51%
Dorostol or Shumen 2007
77%
Draw or Shumen 2007
72%

Winning margin

Dorostol wins by 2+
12%
Shumen 2007 wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Dorostol 1+ goals
72%
Dorostol 2+ goals
37%
Dorostol 3+ goals
14%
Shumen 2007 1+ goals
83%
Shumen 2007 2+ goals
53%
Shumen 2007 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Dorostol (draw refunded)
37%
Shumen 2007 (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dorostol at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.49 · 84 matches

Shumen 2007 away — creates 2.06, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dorostol attack 1.06 + Shumen 2007 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.29

Shumen 2007 attack 2.06 + Dorostol defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dorostol scores more
28%
level
23%
Shumen 2007 scores more
49%

Shumen 2007 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Shumen 2007 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dorostol vs Shumen 2007

Dorostol beat Shumen 2007 1-0 in Third League - Northeast on May 5, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Louis Eyer in Silistra.