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Dorostol vs Lokomotiv Ruse — Third League - Northeast 2018

Dorostol
Dorostol
FT
3 – 1
Lokomotiv Ruse
Lokomotiv Ruse
11/13/2021Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 12Stadion Louis Eyer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Dorostol54%
×Draw22%
Lokomotiv Ruse24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dorostol
1.89
Lokomotiv Ruse
1.18

Dorostol creates 60% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 52 away

creates per match

Dorostol
1.06
Lokomotiv Ruse
0.87

allows per match

Dorostol
1.49
Lokomotiv Ruse
2.71

finishing

Dorostol+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dorostol ↓

Lokomotiv Ruse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dorostol or draw
76%
Dorostol or Lokomotiv Ruse
78%
Draw or Lokomotiv Ruse
46%

Winning margin

Dorostol wins by 2+
31%
Lokomotiv Ruse wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dorostol 1+ goals
85%
Dorostol 2+ goals
56%
Dorostol 3+ goals
29%
Lokomotiv Ruse 1+ goals
69%
Lokomotiv Ruse 2+ goals
33%
Lokomotiv Ruse 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dorostol (draw refunded)
69%
Lokomotiv Ruse (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dorostol at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.49 · 84 matches

Lokomotiv Ruse away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dorostol attack 1.06 + Lokomotiv Ruse defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.89

Lokomotiv Ruse attack 0.87 + Dorostol defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Dorostol scores more
54%
level
22%
Lokomotiv Ruse scores more
24%

Dorostol at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Dorostol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dorostol vs Lokomotiv Ruse

Dorostol beat Lokomotiv Ruse 3-1 in Third League - Northeast on November 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Louis Eyer in Silistra.