Dorostol 3–2 Inter Dobrich: Result & Stats

Dorostol

FT

3 – 2

Inter Dobrich

10/31/2020

Third League - Northeast · North-East - 12Stadion Louis Eyer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Dorostol76%

×Draw14%

Inter Dobrich10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DorostolExpected goals in this matchInter Dobrich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.00

1.03

Dorostol

3.00

Inter Dobrich

1.03

Dorostol creates 191% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 14 away

1.06

creates per match

0.57

1.49

allows per match

4.93

creates per match

Dorostol

1.06

Inter Dobrich

0.57

allows per match

Dorostol

1.49

Inter Dobrich

4.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dorostol+0.00on par

Inter Dobrich+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dorostol ↓

Inter Dobrich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–19%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Dorostol or draw

90%

Dorostol or Inter Dobrich

86%

Draw or Inter Dobrich

24%

Winning margin

Dorostol wins by 2+

56%

Inter Dobrich wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Dorostol 1+ goals

95%

Dorostol 2+ goals

79%

Dorostol 3+ goals

56%

Inter Dobrich 1+ goals

64%

Inter Dobrich 2+ goals

28%

Inter Dobrich 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Dorostol (draw refunded)

88%

Inter Dobrich (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dorostol at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.49 · 84 matches

Inter Dobrich away — creates 0.57, concedes 4.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dorostol attack 1.06 + Inter Dobrich defence 4.93 → ÷2 → 3.00

Inter Dobrich attack 0.57 + Dorostol defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Dorostol scores more

76%

level

14%

Inter Dobrich scores more

10%

Dorostol at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Dorostol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff