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Dorostol vs Dunav ot Ruse II — Third League - Northeast 2018

Dorostol
Dorostol
FT
1 – 0
Dunav ot Ruse II
Dunav ot Ruse II
10/16/2022Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 9Stadion Louis Eyer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Dorostol57%
×Draw22%
Dunav ot Ruse II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dorostol
1.96
Dunav ot Ruse II
1.11

Dorostol creates 77% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 27 away

creates per match

Dorostol
1.06
Dunav ot Ruse II
0.74

allows per match

Dorostol
1.49
Dunav ot Ruse II
2.85

finishing

Dorostol+0.00on par
Dunav ot Ruse II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dorostol ↓

Dunav ot Ruse II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dorostol or draw
79%
Dorostol or Dunav ot Ruse II
78%
Draw or Dunav ot Ruse II
43%

Winning margin

Dorostol wins by 2+
34%
Dunav ot Ruse II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dorostol 1+ goals
86%
Dorostol 2+ goals
58%
Dorostol 3+ goals
31%
Dunav ot Ruse II 1+ goals
67%
Dunav ot Ruse II 2+ goals
30%
Dunav ot Ruse II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dorostol (draw refunded)
73%
Dunav ot Ruse II (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dorostol at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.49 · 84 matches

Dunav ot Ruse II away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dorostol attack 1.06 + Dunav ot Ruse II defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 1.96

Dunav ot Ruse II attack 0.74 + Dorostol defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Dorostol scores more
57%
level
22%
Dunav ot Ruse II scores more
21%

Dorostol at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Dorostol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dorostol vs Dunav ot Ruse II

Dorostol beat Dunav ot Ruse II 1-0 in Third League - Northeast on October 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Louis Eyer in Silistra.