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Dorostol vs Chernolomets 1919 — Third League - Northeast 2018

Dorostol
Dorostol
FT
0 – 1
Chernolomets 1919
Chernolomets 1919
5/25/2025Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 29Stadion Louis Eyer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Dorostol28%
×Draw25%
Chernolomets 191947%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dorostol
1.15
Chernolomets 1919
1.56

Chernolomets 1919 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 91 away

creates per match

Dorostol
1.06
Chernolomets 1919
1.63

allows per match

Dorostol
1.49
Chernolomets 1919
1.24

finishing

Dorostol+0.00on par
Chernolomets 1919+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dorostol ↓

Chernolomets 1919 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dorostol or draw
53%
Dorostol or Chernolomets 1919
75%
Draw or Chernolomets 1919
72%

Winning margin

Dorostol wins by 2+
11%
Chernolomets 1919 wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Dorostol 1+ goals
68%
Dorostol 2+ goals
32%
Dorostol 3+ goals
11%
Chernolomets 1919 1+ goals
79%
Chernolomets 1919 2+ goals
46%
Chernolomets 1919 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Dorostol (draw refunded)
38%
Chernolomets 1919 (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dorostol at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.49 · 84 matches

Chernolomets 1919 away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.24 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dorostol attack 1.06 + Chernolomets 1919 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.15

Chernolomets 1919 attack 1.63 + Dorostol defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dorostol scores more
28%
level
25%
Chernolomets 1919 scores more
47%

Chernolomets 1919 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Chernolomets 1919 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dorostol 0 – 1 Chernolomets 1919

Chernolomets 1919 beat Dorostol 1-0 in Third League - Northeast on May 25, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Louis Eyer in Silistra.