Dornbirn 2–1 Kufstein: Result & Stats

Dornbirn

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kufstein

Ygor 77'

M. Kühne 68'

S. Hussl 79'

6/7/2019

Regionalliga - West · Round 30Stadion Birkenwiese (Dornbirn)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Dornbirn57%

×Draw21%

Kufstein23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DornbirnExpected goals in this matchKufstein

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.27

Dornbirn

2.12

Kufstein

1.27

Dornbirn creates 67% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 59 away

2.29

creates per match

1.39

1.16

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Dornbirn

2.29

Kufstein

1.39

allows per match

Dornbirn

1.16

Kufstein

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dornbirn+0.00on par

Kufstein+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dornbirn ↓

Kufstein →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Dornbirn or draw

77%

Dornbirn or Kufstein

79%

Draw or Kufstein

43%

Winning margin

Dornbirn wins by 2+

34%

Kufstein wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Dornbirn 1+ goals

88%

Dornbirn 2+ goals

62%

Dornbirn 3+ goals

35%

Kufstein 1+ goals

72%

Kufstein 2+ goals

36%

Kufstein 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Dornbirn (draw refunded)

72%

Kufstein (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dornbirn at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.16 · 49 matches

Kufstein away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.95 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dornbirn attack 2.29 + Kufstein defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.12

Kufstein attack 1.39 + Dornbirn defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Dornbirn scores more

57%

level

21%

Kufstein scores more

23%

Dornbirn at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Dornbirn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

L. Fridrikas← D. Mujic

58'

L. Marasek← E. Yildiz

63'

M. Treichl← D. Wurnig

68'

68'

77'

79'

89'

L. Hefel← M. Lang

Dornbirn

Kufstein

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: M. Mader

58'▲L. Fridrikas←▼D. Mujic

68'▲C. Domig←▼A. Rusch

89'▲L. Hefel←▼M. Lang

Dornbirn substitutes

FridrikasDomigHefelKrnjic

Manager: M. Duftner

58'▲L. Marasek←▼E. Yildiz

63'▲M. Treichl←▼D. Wurnig

Kufstein substitutes

MarasekTreichlPoprzanovic

Regionalliga - West: Dornbirn 2–1 Kufstein

Dornbirn beat Kufstein 2-1 in Regionalliga - West on June 7, 2019.

Goals: M. Kühne (68'), Ygor (77'), S. Hussl (79').

The match was played at Stadion Birkenwiese (Dornbirn).

Dornbirn vs Kufstein — Regionalliga - West 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Regionalliga - West: Dornbirn 2–1 Kufstein