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Dornbirn vs FC Liefering — League #219 2026

Dornbirn
Dornbirn
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
FC Liefering
FC Liefering
4/9/2023League #219League #219 · Round 22Stadion Birkenwiese

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dornbirn14%
×Draw20%
FC Liefering66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dornbirn
0.83
FC Liefering
2.08

FC Liefering creates 151% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Dornbirn
0.67
FC Liefering
1.50

allows per match

Dornbirn
2.67
FC Liefering
1.00

finishing

Dornbirn+0.00on par
FC Liefering+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dornbirn ↓

FC Liefering →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–212%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Dornbirn or draw
34%
Dornbirn or FC Liefering
80%
Draw or FC Liefering
86%

Winning margin

Dornbirn wins by 2+
4%
FC Liefering wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Dornbirn 1+ goals
56%
Dornbirn 2+ goals
20%
Dornbirn 3+ goals
5%
FC Liefering 1+ goals
87%
FC Liefering 2+ goals
61%
FC Liefering 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Dornbirn (draw refunded)
17%
FC Liefering (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dornbirn at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

FC Liefering away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dornbirn attack 0.67 + FC Liefering defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

FC Liefering attack 1.50 + Dornbirn defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Dornbirn scores more
14%
level
20%
FC Liefering scores more
66%

FC Liefering at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "FC Liefering will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dornbirn vs FC Liefering

FC Liefering beat Dornbirn 2-0 in League #219 on April 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Birkenwiese in Dornbirn.