Dornbirn 3–2 Austria Salzburg: Result & Stats

Dornbirn

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Austria Salzburg

Ygor 90'

P. Hörmann 77'

C. Domig 71' (pen)

D. Borozni 90+3'

D. Grujcic 81' (OG)

5/6/2017

Regionalliga - West · Round 27Stadion Birkenwiese

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Dornbirn37%

×Draw21%

Austria Salzburg42%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DornbirnExpected goals in this matchAustria Salzburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.96

Dornbirn

1.82

Austria Salzburg

1.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 8 away

2.15

creates per match

2.50

1.41

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Dornbirn

2.15

Austria Salzburg

2.50

allows per match

Dornbirn

1.41

Austria Salzburg

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dornbirn+0.00on par

Austria Salzburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dornbirn ↓

Austria Salzburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Dornbirn or draw

58%

Dornbirn or Austria Salzburg

79%

Draw or Austria Salzburg

63%

Winning margin

Dornbirn wins by 2+

19%

Austria Salzburg wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Dornbirn 1+ goals

84%

Dornbirn 2+ goals

54%

Dornbirn 3+ goals

27%

Austria Salzburg 1+ goals

86%

Austria Salzburg 2+ goals

58%

Austria Salzburg 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Dornbirn (draw refunded)

47%

Austria Salzburg (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dornbirn at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

Austria Salzburg away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dornbirn attack 2.15 + Austria Salzburg defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.82

Austria Salzburg attack 2.50 + Dornbirn defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dornbirn scores more

37%

level

21%

Austria Salzburg scores more

42%

Austria Salzburg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Austria Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

65'

A. Keskic← K. Öztürk

65'

Z. Hada← E. Ndure

71'

C. DomigPenalty

73'

D. Borozni← D. Borozni

75'

R. Spirig← M. Honeck

77'

P. Hörmann

81'

D. GrujcicOwn goal

82'

J. Ramoser← R. Spirig

87'

K. Madlener← P. Hörmann

90'

Ygor

90+3'

D. Borozni

Dornbirn

Austria

▼

▼

▼

🥅

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

Manager: E. Orie

75'▲R. Spirig←▼M. Honeck

82'▲J. Ramoser←▼R. Spirig

87'▲K. Madlener←▼P. Hörmann

Dornbirn substitutes

SpirigRamoserMadlenerHaselwanterFlatz

Manager: A. Piskin

65'▲A. Keskic←▼K. Öztürk

65'▲Z. Hada←▼E. Ndure

73'▲D. Borozni←▼D. Borozni

Austria Salzburg substitutes

KeskicHadaBorozniRoksandicNöhmer

Match Recap: Dornbirn vs Austria Salzburg

Dornbirn beat Austria Salzburg 3-2 in Regionalliga - West on May 6, 2017.

Goals: C. Domig (71' pen), P. Hörmann (77'), D. Grujcic (81' o.g.), Ygor (90'), D. Borozni (90+3').

The match was played at Stadion Birkenwiese in Dornbirn.

Dornbirn vs Austria Salzburg — Regionalliga - West 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Dornbirn vs Austria Salzburg