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Dornach vs Thun II — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Dornach
Dornach
FT
1 – 2
Thun II
Thun II
9/10/20221. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6Sportanlage Gigersloch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dornach36%
×Draw24%
Thun II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dornach
1.46
Thun II
1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Dornach
0.87
Thun II
1.33

allows per match

Dornach
1.73
Thun II
2.04

finishing

Dornach+0.00on par
Thun II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dornach ↓

Thun II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Dornach or draw
61%
Dornach or Thun II
76%
Draw or Thun II
64%

Winning margin

Dornach wins by 2+
17%
Thun II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Dornach 1+ goals
77%
Dornach 2+ goals
43%
Dornach 3+ goals
18%
Thun II 1+ goals
78%
Thun II 2+ goals
45%
Thun II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Dornach (draw refunded)
48%
Thun II (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dornach at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Thun II away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.04 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dornach attack 0.87 + Thun II defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.46

Thun II attack 1.33 + Dornach defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dornach scores more
36%
level
24%
Thun II scores more
39%

Thun II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Thun II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 2: Dornach 1–2 Thun II

Thun II beat Dornach 2-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Sportanlage Gigersloch in Dornach.