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Dornach vs Rotkreuz — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Dornach
Dornach
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Rotkreuz
Rotkreuz
5/13/20231. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 28Sportanlage Gigersloch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dornach34%
×Draw25%
Rotkreuz41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dornach
1.32
Rotkreuz
1.48

Rotkreuz creates 12% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Dornach
0.87
Rotkreuz
1.22

allows per match

Dornach
1.73
Rotkreuz
1.78

finishing

Dornach+0.00on par
Rotkreuz+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dornach ↓

Rotkreuz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dornach or draw
59%
Dornach or Rotkreuz
75%
Draw or Rotkreuz
66%

Winning margin

Dornach wins by 2+
15%
Rotkreuz wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Dornach 1+ goals
73%
Dornach 2+ goals
38%
Dornach 3+ goals
15%
Rotkreuz 1+ goals
77%
Rotkreuz 2+ goals
43%
Rotkreuz 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Dornach (draw refunded)
45%
Rotkreuz (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dornach at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Rotkreuz away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dornach attack 0.87 + Rotkreuz defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.32

Rotkreuz attack 1.22 + Dornach defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dornach scores more
34%
level
25%
Rotkreuz scores more
41%

Rotkreuz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rotkreuz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dornach vs Rotkreuz

Dornach beat Rotkreuz 3-2 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Sportanlage Gigersloch in Dornach.