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Dornach vs Bassecourt — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Dornach
Dornach
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bassecourt
Bassecourt
11/19/20221. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 15Sportanlage Gigersloch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dornach34%
×Draw26%
Bassecourt40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dornach
1.28
Bassecourt
1.41

Bassecourt creates 10% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 86 away

creates per match

Dornach
0.87
Bassecourt
1.08

allows per match

Dornach
1.73
Bassecourt
1.70

finishing

Dornach+0.00on par
Bassecourt+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dornach ↓

Bassecourt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Dornach or draw
60%
Dornach or Bassecourt
74%
Draw or Bassecourt
66%

Winning margin

Dornach wins by 2+
15%
Bassecourt wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Dornach 1+ goals
72%
Dornach 2+ goals
37%
Dornach 3+ goals
14%
Bassecourt 1+ goals
76%
Bassecourt 2+ goals
41%
Bassecourt 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Dornach (draw refunded)
46%
Bassecourt (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dornach at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Bassecourt away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.70 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dornach attack 0.87 + Bassecourt defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.28

Bassecourt attack 1.08 + Dornach defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dornach scores more
34%
level
26%
Bassecourt scores more
40%

Bassecourt at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bassecourt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 2: Dornach 0–0 Bassecourt

Dornach and Bassecourt drew 0-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on November 19, 2022.

The match was played at Sportanlage Gigersloch in Dornach.