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Dorking Wanderers vs Salisbury — League #51 2026

Dorking Wanderers
Dorking Wanderers
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Salisbury
Salisbury
1/31/2026League #51League #51

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Dorking Wanderers58%
×Draw20%
Salisbury22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dorking Wanderers
2.26
Salisbury
1.33

Dorking Wanderers creates 70% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 15 away

creates per match

Dorking Wanderers
2.80
Salisbury
1.07

allows per match

Dorking Wanderers
1.60
Salisbury
1.73

finishing

Dorking Wanderers+0.00on par
Salisbury+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dorking Wanderers ↓

Salisbury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Dorking Wanderers or draw
78%
Dorking Wanderers or Salisbury
80%
Draw or Salisbury
42%

Winning margin

Dorking Wanderers wins by 2+
36%
Salisbury wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dorking Wanderers 1+ goals
89%
Dorking Wanderers 2+ goals
66%
Dorking Wanderers 3+ goals
39%
Salisbury 1+ goals
74%
Salisbury 2+ goals
38%
Salisbury 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Dorking Wanderers (draw refunded)
73%
Salisbury (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dorking Wanderers at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Salisbury away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dorking Wanderers attack 2.80 + Salisbury defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.26

Salisbury attack 1.07 + Dorking Wanderers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Dorking Wanderers scores more
58%
level
20%
Salisbury scores more
22%

Dorking Wanderers at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Dorking Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dorking Wanderers vs Salisbury

Dorking Wanderers beat Salisbury 3-0 in League #51 on January 31, 2026.