Dordrecht 0–1 Telstar: Result & Stats

Dordrecht

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Telstar

Ö. Aktas 71'

9/17/2021

Eerste Divisie · Round 7Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Dordrecht43%

×Draw24%

Telstar32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DordrechtExpected goals in this matchTelstar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.36

Dordrecht

1.61

Telstar

1.36

Dordrecht creates 18% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 129 away

1.54

creates per match

1.18

1.54

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Dordrecht

1.54

Telstar

1.18

allows per match

Dordrecht

1.54

Telstar

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dordrecht+0.00on par

Telstar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dordrecht ↓

Telstar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Dordrecht or draw

68%

Dordrecht or Telstar

76%

Draw or Telstar

57%

Winning margin

Dordrecht wins by 2+

22%

Telstar wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Dordrecht 1+ goals

80%

Dordrecht 2+ goals

48%

Dordrecht 3+ goals

22%

Telstar 1+ goals

74%

Telstar 2+ goals

39%

Telstar 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Dordrecht (draw refunded)

57%

Telstar (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dordrecht at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.54 · 145 matches

Telstar away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.69 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dordrecht attack 1.54 + Telstar defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.61

Telstar attack 1.18 + Dordrecht defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dordrecht scores more

43%

level

24%

Telstar scores more

32%

Dordrecht at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dordrecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

S. van Doorm

Telstar · M

8.2

Match Events

9'

Glynor Plet

25'

Nikolas Agrafiotis

46'

G. van Velzen← R. Fernandes

46'

Y. Liesdek← D. Blackson

46'

R. Smit← G. Plet

64'

J. Schuurman← M. Savastano

64'

E. Biberoğlu← T. Hölscher

66'

Pascu

69'

Toine Van Huizen

71'

Ö. Aktas↳ S. van Doorm

74'

J. Wielzen← S. NDiaye

80'

B. Vliet← Pascu

81'

O. Kökcü← C. Dijkstra

87'

Anouar El Azzouzi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DordrechtTelstar

Overview

47%Possession53%

10Total Shots12

3Corners6

20Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots12

4On Target4

2Off Target4

4Blocked4

6Inside Box7

4Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

361Total Passes394

270Accurate Passes298

75%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

20Fouls14

4Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2