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Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax — Eerste Divisie 2018

Dordrecht
Dordrecht
Preview
18:00
Jong Ajax
Jong Ajax
8/7/2026Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 1M-Scores Stadion
Big match
44%
Dordrecht
model favours
44%23%33%

Dordrecht score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
65%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 145+ matches

Dordrecht44%
×Draw23%
Jong Ajax33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dordrecht
1.79
Jong Ajax
1.51

Dordrecht creates 19% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 147 away

creates per match

Dordrecht
1.56
Jong Ajax
1.46

allows per match

Dordrecht
1.56
Jong Ajax
2.03

finishing

Dordrecht+0.00on par
Jong Ajax+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dordrecht ↓

Jong Ajax →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Dordrecht or draw
67%
Dordrecht or Jong Ajax
77%
Draw or Jong Ajax
56%

Winning margin

Dordrecht wins by 2+
24%
Jong Ajax wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Dordrecht 1+ goals
83%
Dordrecht 2+ goals
53%
Dordrecht 3+ goals
26%
Jong Ajax 1+ goals
78%
Jong Ajax 2+ goals
44%
Jong Ajax 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Dordrecht (draw refunded)
58%
Jong Ajax (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dordrecht at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.56 · 145 matches

Jong Ajax away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.03 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dordrecht attack 1.56 + Jong Ajax defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.79

Jong Ajax attack 1.46 + Dordrecht defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dordrecht scores more
44%
level
23%
Jong Ajax scores more
33%

Dordrecht at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dordrecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 73% of Dordrecht’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Jong Ajax outscore their xG (1.5 vs 0.7 expected)
  • Dordrecht fall short of their xG (1.3 vs 1.7 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Dordrecht
Balanced
Jong Ajax
Balanced
48%Possession52%
75%Pass accuracy83%
14.2Shots12.7
1.70xGBiggest gap0.71
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
DordrechtJong Ajax

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Dordrecht
3
Draws
3
Jong Ajax
Avg goals: 3.4BTTS: 50%
0–10–03–01–02–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Dordrecht
WWLLW
Ajax
LLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dordrecht face Jong Ajax (Eerste Divisie)

Eerste Divisie returns with Dordrecht hosting Jong Ajax. Match starts August 7, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Dordrecht host Jong Ajax at M-Scores Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.