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Dordrecht vs Fortuna Düsseldorf — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Dordrecht
Dordrecht
FT
2 – 6
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1/8/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dordrecht14%
×Draw13%
Fortuna Düsseldorf73%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dordrecht
1.72
Fortuna Düsseldorf
3.84

Fortuna Düsseldorf creates 123% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Dordrecht
2.00
Fortuna Düsseldorf
5.11

allows per match

Dordrecht
2.57
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.44

finishing

Dordrecht+0.00on par
Fortuna Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dordrecht ↓

Fortuna Düsseldorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–23%
0–34%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–37%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–25%
2–36%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–23%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
78%22%4.5
61%39%

Double chance

Dordrecht or draw
27%
Dordrecht or Fortuna Düsseldorf
87%
Draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf
86%

Winning margin

Dordrecht wins by 2+
6%
Fortuna Düsseldorf wins by 2+
56%

Team goals

Dordrecht 1+ goals
82%
Dordrecht 2+ goals
51%
Dordrecht 3+ goals
25%
Fortuna Düsseldorf 1+ goals
98%
Fortuna Düsseldorf 2+ goals
89%
Fortuna Düsseldorf 3+ goals
71%

Draw no bet

Dordrecht (draw refunded)
16%
Fortuna Düsseldorf (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dordrecht at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf away — creates 5.11, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dordrecht attack 2.00 + Fortuna Düsseldorf defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.72

Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 5.11 + Dordrecht defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 3.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Dordrecht scores more
14%
level
13%
Fortuna Düsseldorf scores more
73%

Fortuna Düsseldorf at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dordrecht vs Fortuna Düsseldorf

Fortuna Düsseldorf beat Dordrecht 6-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 8, 2024.

The match was played at TBC in TBC.