Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dordrecht vs Emmen — Eerste Divisie 2018

Dordrecht
Dordrecht
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Emmen
Emmen
2/13/2026Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 27M-Scores Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Dordrecht39%
×Draw24%
Emmen36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dordrecht
1.52
Emmen
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 147 home / 76 away

creates per match

Dordrecht
1.55
Emmen
1.30

allows per match

Dordrecht
1.59
Emmen
1.50

finishing

Dordrecht+0.00on par
Emmen+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dordrecht ↓

Emmen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Dordrecht or draw
64%
Dordrecht or Emmen
76%
Draw or Emmen
61%

Winning margin

Dordrecht wins by 2+
19%
Emmen wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Dordrecht 1+ goals
78%
Dordrecht 2+ goals
45%
Dordrecht 3+ goals
20%
Emmen 1+ goals
77%
Emmen 2+ goals
42%
Emmen 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Dordrecht (draw refunded)
52%
Emmen (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dordrecht at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.59 · 147 matches

Emmen away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.50 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dordrecht attack 1.55 + Emmen defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Emmen attack 1.30 + Dordrecht defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dordrecht scores more
39%
level
24%
Emmen scores more
36%

Dordrecht at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dordrecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dordrecht vs Emmen

Dordrecht beat Emmen 1-0 in Eerste Divisie on February 13, 2026.

The match was played at M-Scores Stadion in Dordrecht.