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Dordrecht vs Borussia Dortmund II — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Dordrecht
Dordrecht
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Borussia Dortmund II
Borussia Dortmund II
B. Mpanzu 81'
Y. M'Bemba 77'
L. Sunderland 72'
Y. Younous 42'
Unknown 34'
7/14/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Dordrecht41%
×Draw21%
Borussia Dortmund II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dordrecht
1.97
Borussia Dortmund II
1.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Dordrecht
2.38
Borussia Dortmund II
1.56

allows per match

Dordrecht
2.25
Borussia Dortmund II
1.56

finishing

Dordrecht+0.00on par
Borussia Dortmund II+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dordrecht ↓

Borussia Dortmund II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Dordrecht or draw
62%
Dordrecht or Borussia Dortmund II
79%
Draw or Borussia Dortmund II
59%

Winning margin

Dordrecht wins by 2+
22%
Borussia Dortmund II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Dordrecht 1+ goals
86%
Dordrecht 2+ goals
58%
Dordrecht 3+ goals
31%
Borussia Dortmund II 1+ goals
85%
Borussia Dortmund II 2+ goals
57%
Borussia Dortmund II 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Dordrecht (draw refunded)
51%
Borussia Dortmund II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dordrecht at home — creates 2.38, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

Borussia Dortmund II away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dordrecht attack 2.38 + Borussia Dortmund II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.97

Borussia Dortmund II attack 1.56 + Dordrecht defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dordrecht scores more
41%
level
21%
Borussia Dortmund II scores more
38%

Dordrecht at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dordrecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
42'
Y. Younous
72'
L. Sunderland
77'
Y. M'Bemba
81'
B. Mpanzu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dordrecht vs Borussia Dortmund II

Dordrecht beat Borussia Dortmund II 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 14, 2026.

Goals: ? (34'), Y. Younous (42'), L. Sunderland (72'), Y. M'Bemba (77'), B. Mpanzu (81').