Dordoi Bishkek 3–2 Talant: Result & Stats

Dordoi Bishkek

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Talant

4/5/2025

Premier League · Round 4Stadion Dordoy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Dordoi Bishkek58%

×Draw23%

Talant19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dordoi BishkekExpected goals in this matchTalant

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.91

Dordoi Bishkek

1.77

Talant

0.91

Dordoi Bishkek creates 95% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 61 away

2.17

creates per match

0.98

0.84

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Dordoi Bishkek

2.17

Talant

0.98

allows per match

Dordoi Bishkek

0.84

Talant

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dordoi Bishkek+0.00on par

Talant+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dordoi Bishkek ↓

Talant →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Dordoi Bishkek or draw

81%

Dordoi Bishkek or Talant

77%

Draw or Talant

42%

Winning margin

Dordoi Bishkek wins by 2+

33%

Talant wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Dordoi Bishkek 1+ goals

83%

Dordoi Bishkek 2+ goals

53%

Dordoi Bishkek 3+ goals

26%

Talant 1+ goals

60%

Talant 2+ goals

23%

Talant 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Dordoi Bishkek (draw refunded)

75%

Talant (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dordoi Bishkek at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.84 · 94 matches

Talant away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.36 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dordoi Bishkek attack 2.17 + Talant defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.77

Talant attack 0.98 + Dordoi Bishkek defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Dordoi Bishkek scores more

58%

level

23%

Talant scores more

19%

Dordoi Bishkek at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Dordoi Bishkek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff