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Dorados vs Tapatío — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Dorados
Dorados
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Tapatío
Tapatío
4/6/2024Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 8Estadio Dorados

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Dorados41%
×Draw26%
Tapatío33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dorados
1.43
Tapatío
1.24

Dorados creates 15% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 104 away

creates per match

Dorados
1.41
Tapatío
1.25

allows per match

Dorados
1.23
Tapatío
1.45

finishing

Dorados+0.00on par
Tapatío+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dorados ↓

Tapatío →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Dorados or draw
67%
Dorados or Tapatío
74%
Draw or Tapatío
59%

Winning margin

Dorados wins by 2+
20%
Tapatío wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dorados 1+ goals
76%
Dorados 2+ goals
42%
Dorados 3+ goals
17%
Tapatío 1+ goals
71%
Tapatío 2+ goals
35%
Tapatío 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Dorados (draw refunded)
56%
Tapatío (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dorados at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.23 · 125 matches

Tapatío away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.45 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dorados attack 1.41 + Tapatío defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.43

Tapatío attack 1.25 + Dorados defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dorados scores more
41%
level
26%
Tapatío scores more
33%

Dorados at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dorados will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Dorados 1–3 Tapatío

Tapatío beat Dorados 3-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Dorados in Culiacán.