Dorados 0–1 Tampico Madero: Result & Stats

Dorados

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tampico Madero

12/12/2021

Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - Semi-finalsEstadio Banorte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Dorados41%

×Draw28%

Tampico Madero31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DoradosExpected goals in this matchTampico Madero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.06

Dorados

1.28

Tampico Madero

1.06

Dorados creates 21% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 63 away

1.41

creates per match

0.89

1.24

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Dorados

1.41

Tampico Madero

0.89

allows per match

Dorados

1.24

Tampico Madero

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dorados+0.00on par

Tampico Madero+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dorados ↓

Tampico Madero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Dorados or draw

69%

Dorados or Tampico Madero

72%

Draw or Tampico Madero

59%

Winning margin

Dorados wins by 2+

19%

Tampico Madero wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Dorados 1+ goals

72%

Dorados 2+ goals

37%

Dorados 3+ goals

14%

Tampico Madero 1+ goals

65%

Tampico Madero 2+ goals

29%

Tampico Madero 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Dorados (draw refunded)

57%

Tampico Madero (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dorados at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.24 · 123 matches

Tampico Madero away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.16 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dorados attack 1.41 + Tampico Madero defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.28

Tampico Madero attack 0.89 + Dorados defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dorados scores more

41%

level

28%

Tampico Madero scores more

31%

Dorados at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dorados will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff