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Dorados vs Raya2 — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Dorados
Dorados
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Raya2
Raya2
10/16/2021Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 12Estadio Banorte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Dorados42%
×Draw28%
Raya231%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dorados
1.31
Raya2
1.08

Dorados creates 21% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 34 away

creates per match

Dorados
1.41
Raya2
0.94

allows per match

Dorados
1.23
Raya2
1.21

finishing

Dorados+0.00on par
Raya2+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dorados ↓

Raya2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dorados or draw
69%
Dorados or Raya2
72%
Draw or Raya2
58%

Winning margin

Dorados wins by 2+
19%
Raya2 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dorados 1+ goals
73%
Dorados 2+ goals
38%
Dorados 3+ goals
14%
Raya2 1+ goals
66%
Raya2 2+ goals
29%
Raya2 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dorados (draw refunded)
58%
Raya2 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dorados at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.23 · 125 matches

Raya2 away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dorados attack 1.41 + Raya2 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.31

Raya2 attack 0.94 + Dorados defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dorados scores more
42%
level
28%
Raya2 scores more
31%

Dorados at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dorados will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dorados vs Raya2

Dorados beat Raya2 4-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Banorte in Culiacán.