Dorados 1–2 Pumas Tabasco: Result & Stats

Dorados

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Pumas Tabasco

2/1/2023

Liga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 5Estadio Dorados

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Dorados43%

×Draw25%

Pumas Tabasco32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DoradosExpected goals in this matchPumas Tabasco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.25

Dorados

1.50

Pumas Tabasco

1.25

Dorados creates 20% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 50 away

1.41

creates per match

1.26

1.23

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Dorados

1.41

Pumas Tabasco

1.26

allows per match

Dorados

1.23

Pumas Tabasco

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dorados+0.00on par

Pumas Tabasco+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dorados ↓

Pumas Tabasco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Dorados or draw

68%

Dorados or Pumas Tabasco

75%

Draw or Pumas Tabasco

57%

Winning margin

Dorados wins by 2+

21%

Pumas Tabasco wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Dorados 1+ goals

78%

Dorados 2+ goals

44%

Dorados 3+ goals

19%

Pumas Tabasco 1+ goals

71%

Pumas Tabasco 2+ goals

36%

Pumas Tabasco 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Dorados (draw refunded)

58%

Pumas Tabasco (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dorados at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.23 · 125 matches

Pumas Tabasco away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.60 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dorados attack 1.41 + Pumas Tabasco defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Pumas Tabasco attack 1.26 + Dorados defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dorados scores more

43%

level

25%

Pumas Tabasco scores more

32%

Dorados at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dorados will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff