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Dorados vs Mineros de Zacatecas — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Dorados
Dorados
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Mineros de Zacatecas
Mineros de Zacatecas
1/12/2025Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 1Estadio Caliente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 125+ matches

Dorados43%
×Draw26%
Mineros de Zacatecas32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dorados
1.47
Mineros de Zacatecas
1.23

Dorados creates 20% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 136 away

creates per match

Dorados
1.41
Mineros de Zacatecas
1.24

allows per match

Dorados
1.23
Mineros de Zacatecas
1.53

finishing

Dorados+0.00on par
Mineros de Zacatecas+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dorados ↓

Mineros de Zacatecas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dorados or draw
68%
Dorados or Mineros de Zacatecas
74%
Draw or Mineros de Zacatecas
57%

Winning margin

Dorados wins by 2+
21%
Mineros de Zacatecas wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dorados 1+ goals
77%
Dorados 2+ goals
43%
Dorados 3+ goals
18%
Mineros de Zacatecas 1+ goals
71%
Mineros de Zacatecas 2+ goals
35%
Mineros de Zacatecas 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Dorados (draw refunded)
57%
Mineros de Zacatecas (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dorados at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.23 · 125 matches

Mineros de Zacatecas away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.53 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dorados attack 1.41 + Mineros de Zacatecas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.47

Mineros de Zacatecas attack 1.24 + Dorados defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dorados scores more
43%
level
26%
Mineros de Zacatecas scores more
32%

Dorados at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dorados will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dorados vs Mineros de Zacatecas

Mineros de Zacatecas beat Dorados 2-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on January 12, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Caliente in Tijuana.