Dorados vs Durango — Liga de Expansión MX 2018
Their last 3 meetings averaged 3.7 goals
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 19+ matches
Dorados51%
Durango24%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Dorados creates 56% more chances
Season form · 125 home / 19 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Dorados ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Dorados at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.23 · 125 matches
Durango away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Dorados attack 1.41 + Durango defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.65
Durango attack 0.89 + Dorados defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.06
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Dorados at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Dorados will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
CDS Tampico Madero
Cancún
Tepatitlán
Atlante FC
Monarcas
Mineros de Zacatecas
Irapuato
CA La Paz
Tapatío
Leones Negros UDG
Venados FC
Tlaxcala
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Correcaminos UatDoradosIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Dorados host Durango on Sunday, 27 September 2026 at 01:00. The match is part of the Liga de Expansión MX 2018/2019 season.
Dorados face Durango (Liga de Expansión MX)
Liga de Expansión MX returns with Dorados hosting Durango. Match starts September 27, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Dorados host Durango at Estadio Dorados.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.