Dorados 2–3 CDS Tampico Madero: Result & Stats

Dorados

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

CDS Tampico Madero

L. Vargas 71' (pen)

C. Galicia 42'

S. Flores 82'

M. Pedroza 17'

E. Perez 6'

9/28/2025

Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 9Estadio Dorados

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Dorados42%

×Draw28%

CDS Tampico Madero30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DoradosExpected goals in this matchCDS Tampico Madero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.04

Dorados

1.28

CDS Tampico Madero

1.04

Dorados creates 23% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 37 away

1.43

creates per match

0.86

1.22

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Dorados

1.43

CDS Tampico Madero

0.86

allows per match

Dorados

1.22

CDS Tampico Madero

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dorados+0.00on par

CDS Tampico Madero+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dorados ↓

CDS Tampico Madero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Dorados or draw

70%

Dorados or CDS Tampico Madero

72%

Draw or CDS Tampico Madero

58%

Winning margin

Dorados wins by 2+

19%

CDS Tampico Madero wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Dorados 1+ goals

72%

Dorados 2+ goals

37%

Dorados 3+ goals

14%

CDS Tampico Madero 1+ goals

65%

CDS Tampico Madero 2+ goals

28%

CDS Tampico Madero 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Dorados (draw refunded)

58%

CDS Tampico Madero (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dorados at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.22 · 130 matches

CDS Tampico Madero away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.14 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dorados attack 1.43 + CDS Tampico Madero defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.28

CDS Tampico Madero attack 0.86 + Dorados defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dorados scores more

42%

level

28%

CDS Tampico Madero scores more

30%

Dorados at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dorados will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

E. Perez

17'

M. Pedroza

42'

C. Galicia↳ L. Vargas

46'

C. Gonzalez← R. Dominguez

57'

M. Sol

59'

A. Ramirez← A. Egana

60'

A. Rios← J. Peralta

61'

N. Corona← M. Pedroza

71'

L. VargasPenalty

78'

F. Martinez← A. Escoboza

78'

R. Villa← E. Perez

80'

N. Corona

80'

J. Cortes← M. Sol

80'

J. Rengifo← L. Vargas

82'

S. Flores↳ E. Torres

83'

F. Martinez

87'

E. Bonilla← A. Flores

88'

D. Araujo← S. Yanez

90+7'

J. Clemente

Dorados

CDS

13

Ruiz

3

Garcia

6

Garcia

8

A

Torres

16

▼

Dominguez

28

⚽

Flores

21

▼

Peralta

22

Clemente

23

▼

Escoboza

26

⚽

▼

Perez

29

⚽

▼

Pedroza

30

Vaal

2

▼

Yanez

4

Ruiz

5

▼

Flores

33

Parra

7

Alvarez

12

▼

Egana

14

▼

Sol

15

⚽

Galicia

16

Martinez

23

⚽A

▼

Vargas

Manager: Cirilo Saucedo Nájera

59'▲A. Ramirez←▼A. Egana

80'▲J. Cortes←▼M. Sol

80'▲J. Rengifo←▼L. Vargas

87'▲E. Bonilla←▼A. Flores

88'▲D. Araujo←▼S. Yanez

Dorados substitutes

18Higuera24Ramirez25Velazco8Cortes10Bonilla20Araujo27Sanchez9Rengifo19Vazquez28Suarez

Manager: Marco Antonio Ruiz García

46'▲C. Gonzalez←▼R. Dominguez

60'▲A. Rios←▼J. Peralta

61'▲N. Corona←▼M. Pedroza

78'▲F. Martinez←▼A. Escoboza

78'▲R. Villa←▼E. Perez

CDS Tampico Madero substitutes

12Flores2Gonzalez4Rios25Perez33Gonzalez10Soto19Martinez11Villa14Corona