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Dorados vs CA La Paz — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Dorados
Dorados
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
CA La Paz
CA La Paz
2/8/2026Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 5Estadio Dorados

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Dorados53%
×Draw23%
CA La Paz24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dorados
1.84
CA La Paz
1.16

Dorados creates 59% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 64 away

creates per match

Dorados
1.41
CA La Paz
1.09

allows per match

Dorados
1.23
CA La Paz
2.28

finishing

Dorados+0.00on par
CA La Paz+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dorados ↓

CA La Paz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Dorados or draw
76%
Dorados or CA La Paz
77%
Draw or CA La Paz
47%

Winning margin

Dorados wins by 2+
30%
CA La Paz wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dorados 1+ goals
84%
Dorados 2+ goals
55%
Dorados 3+ goals
28%
CA La Paz 1+ goals
69%
CA La Paz 2+ goals
32%
CA La Paz 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dorados (draw refunded)
69%
CA La Paz (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dorados at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.23 · 125 matches

CA La Paz away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.28 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dorados attack 1.41 + CA La Paz defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.84

CA La Paz attack 1.09 + Dorados defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dorados scores more
53%
level
23%
CA La Paz scores more
24%

Dorados at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dorados will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dorados vs CA La Paz

Dorados and CA La Paz drew 2-2 in Liga de Expansión MX on February 8, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Dorados.