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Dons vs TuPS — Suomen Cup 2018

Dons
Dons
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
TuPS
TuPS
5/6/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundTali tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dons15%
×Draw16%
TuPS69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dons
1.25
TuPS
2.81

TuPS creates 125% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Dons
1.50
TuPS
2.88

allows per match

Dons
2.75
TuPS
1.00

finishing

Dons+0.00on par
TuPS+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dons ↓

TuPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Dons or draw
31%
Dons or TuPS
84%
Draw or TuPS
85%

Winning margin

Dons wins by 2+
6%
TuPS wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

Dons 1+ goals
71%
Dons 2+ goals
36%
Dons 3+ goals
13%
TuPS 1+ goals
94%
TuPS 2+ goals
76%
TuPS 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

Dons (draw refunded)
18%
TuPS (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dons at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

TuPS away — creates 2.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dons attack 1.50 + TuPS defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

TuPS attack 2.88 + Dons defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Dons scores more
15%
level
16%
TuPS scores more
69%

TuPS at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "TuPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dons 1 – 2 TuPS

TuPS beat Dons 2-1 in Suomen Cup on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Tali tekonurmi in Helsinki.