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Dons vs EsPa — Suomen Cup 2018

Dons
Dons
FT
0 – 4
EsPa
EsPa
3/21/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundTöölö PK 1 Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dons8%
×Draw10%
EsPa83%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dons
1.44
EsPa
4.44

EsPa creates 208% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Dons
1.50
EsPa
6.13

allows per match

Dons
2.75
EsPa
1.38

finishing

Dons+0.00on par
EsPa+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dons ↓

EsPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–23%
0–35%
0–45%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–25%
1–37%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–23%
2–35%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–4 (8%) · grid covers 64% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
81%19%4.5
64%36%

Double chance

Dons or draw
17%
Dons or EsPa
90%
Draw or EsPa
92%

Winning margin

Dons wins by 2+
3%
EsPa wins by 2+
68%

Team goals

Dons 1+ goals
76%
Dons 2+ goals
42%
Dons 3+ goals
18%
EsPa 1+ goals
99%
EsPa 2+ goals
92%
EsPa 3+ goals
78%

Draw no bet

Dons (draw refunded)
9%
EsPa (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dons at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

EsPa away — creates 6.13, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dons attack 1.50 + EsPa defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.44

EsPa attack 6.13 + Dons defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 4.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Dons scores more
8%
level
10%
EsPa scores more
83%

EsPa at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "EsPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: Dons 0–4 EsPa

EsPa beat Dons 4-0 in Suomen Cup on March 21, 2025.

The match was played at Töölö PK 1 Tekonurmi in Helsinki.