Donn 1–3 Vindbjart: Result & Stats

Donn

FT

1 – 3

Vindbjart

4/22/2023

3. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 3Kristiansand kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Donn33%

×Draw23%

Vindbjart44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DonnExpected goals in this matchVindbjart

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.82

Donn

1.55

Vindbjart

1.82

Vindbjart creates 17% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 32 away

1.38

creates per match

1.56

2.08

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Donn

1.38

Vindbjart

1.56

allows per match

Donn

2.08

Vindbjart

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Donn+0.00on par

Vindbjart+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Donn ↓

Vindbjart →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Donn or draw

56%

Donn or Vindbjart

77%

Draw or Vindbjart

67%

Winning margin

Donn wins by 2+

16%

Vindbjart wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Donn 1+ goals

79%

Donn 2+ goals

46%

Donn 3+ goals

20%

Vindbjart 1+ goals

84%

Vindbjart 2+ goals

54%

Vindbjart 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Donn (draw refunded)

43%

Vindbjart (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Donn at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Vindbjart away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.72 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Donn attack 1.38 + Vindbjart defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.55

Vindbjart attack 1.56 + Donn defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Donn scores more

33%

level

23%

Vindbjart scores more

44%

Vindbjart at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vindbjart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff