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Donn vs Madla — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Donn
Donn
FT
5 – 0
Madla
Madla
10/23/20213. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Girone 3 - 12Kristiansand Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Donn49%
×Draw20%
Madla31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Donn
2.30
Madla
1.81

Donn creates 27% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 20 away

creates per match

Donn
2.00
Madla
1.45

allows per match

Donn
2.17
Madla
2.60

finishing

Donn+0.00on par
Madla+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Donn ↓

Madla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Donn or draw
69%
Donn or Madla
80%
Draw or Madla
51%

Winning margin

Donn wins by 2+
29%
Madla wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Donn 1+ goals
90%
Donn 2+ goals
67%
Donn 3+ goals
40%
Madla 1+ goals
84%
Madla 2+ goals
54%
Madla 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Donn (draw refunded)
61%
Madla (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Donn at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Madla away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Donn attack 2.00 + Madla defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.30

Madla attack 1.45 + Donn defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Donn scores more
49%
level
20%
Madla scores more
31%

Donn at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Donn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Donn 5 – 0 Madla

Donn beat Madla 5-0 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Kristiansand Stadion in Kristiansand.