Dongguan United 1–1 Qingdao Red Lions

Dongguan United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Qingdao Red Lions

7/14/2024

League One · Round 17Nanhai Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dongguan United46%

×Draw26%

Qingdao Red Lions28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dongguan UnitedExpected goals in this matchQingdao Red Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.07

Dongguan United

1.44

Qingdao Red Lions

1.07

Dongguan United creates 35% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 30 away

1.11

creates per match

0.90

1.25

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Dongguan United

1.11

Qingdao Red Lions

0.90

allows per match

Dongguan United

1.25

Qingdao Red Lions

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dongguan United+0.00on par

Qingdao Red Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dongguan United ↓

Qingdao Red Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Dongguan United or draw

72%

Dongguan United or Qingdao Red Lions

74%

Draw or Qingdao Red Lions

54%

Winning margin

Dongguan United wins by 2+

22%

Qingdao Red Lions wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Dongguan United 1+ goals

76%

Dongguan United 2+ goals

42%

Dongguan United 3+ goals

18%

Qingdao Red Lions 1+ goals

66%

Qingdao Red Lions 2+ goals

29%

Qingdao Red Lions 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Dongguan United (draw refunded)

62%

Qingdao Red Lions (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dongguan United at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.25 · 53 matches

Qingdao Red Lions away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dongguan United attack 1.11 + Qingdao Red Lions defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.44

Qingdao Red Lions attack 0.90 + Dongguan United defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dongguan United scores more

46%

level

26%

Qingdao Red Lions scores more

28%

Dongguan United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dongguan United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff