Dongguan United 2–0 Jinan Xingzhou: Result & Stats

Dongguan United

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Jinan Xingzhou

11/5/2023

League One · Round 30Nanhai Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dongguan United35%

×Draw29%

Jinan Xingzhou36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dongguan UnitedExpected goals in this matchJinan Xingzhou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.15

Dongguan United

1.13

Jinan Xingzhou

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 15 away

1.12

creates per match

1.07

1.23

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Dongguan United

1.12

Jinan Xingzhou

1.07

allows per match

Dongguan United

1.23

Jinan Xingzhou

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dongguan United+0.00on par

Jinan Xingzhou+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dongguan United ↓

Jinan Xingzhou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Dongguan United or draw

64%

Dongguan United or Jinan Xingzhou

71%

Draw or Jinan Xingzhou

65%

Winning margin

Dongguan United wins by 2+

14%

Jinan Xingzhou wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Dongguan United 1+ goals

68%

Dongguan United 2+ goals

31%

Dongguan United 3+ goals

11%

Jinan Xingzhou 1+ goals

68%

Jinan Xingzhou 2+ goals

32%

Jinan Xingzhou 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Dongguan United (draw refunded)

49%

Jinan Xingzhou (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dongguan United at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.23 · 52 matches

Jinan Xingzhou away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dongguan United attack 1.12 + Jinan Xingzhou defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Jinan Xingzhou attack 1.07 + Dongguan United defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Dongguan United scores more

35%

level

29%

Jinan Xingzhou scores more

36%

Jinan Xingzhou at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Jinan Xingzhou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff