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Dongen vs Hoogland — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Dongen
Dongen
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Hoogland
Hoogland
3/23/2022Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 21Sportpark De Biezen veld B

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Dongen52%
×Draw22%
Hoogland27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dongen
2.00
Hoogland
1.38

Dongen creates 45% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 31 away

creates per match

Dongen
1.60
Hoogland
1.26

allows per match

Dongen
1.49
Hoogland
2.39

finishing

Dongen+0.00on par
Hoogland+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dongen ↓

Hoogland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Dongen or draw
73%
Dongen or Hoogland
78%
Draw or Hoogland
48%

Winning margin

Dongen wins by 2+
30%
Hoogland wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dongen 1+ goals
86%
Dongen 2+ goals
59%
Dongen 3+ goals
32%
Hoogland 1+ goals
75%
Hoogland 2+ goals
40%
Hoogland 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Dongen (draw refunded)
66%
Hoogland (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dongen at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.49 · 47 matches

Hoogland away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.39 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dongen attack 1.60 + Hoogland defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 2.00

Hoogland attack 1.26 + Dongen defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dongen scores more
52%
level
22%
Hoogland scores more
27%

Dongen at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dongen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: Dongen 2–0 Hoogland

Dongen beat Hoogland 2-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on March 23, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark De Biezen veld B in Dongen.