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Dongen vs Baronie — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Dongen
Dongen
FT
1 – 2
Baronie
Baronie
5/14/2023Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 32Sportpark De Biezen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Dongen54%
×Draw21%
Baronie25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dongen
2.08
Baronie
1.35

Dongen creates 54% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 34 away

creates per match

Dongen
1.60
Baronie
1.21

allows per match

Dongen
1.49
Baronie
2.56

finishing

Dongen+0.00on par
Baronie+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dongen ↓

Baronie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Dongen or draw
75%
Dongen or Baronie
79%
Draw or Baronie
46%

Winning margin

Dongen wins by 2+
32%
Baronie wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dongen 1+ goals
87%
Dongen 2+ goals
61%
Dongen 3+ goals
34%
Baronie 1+ goals
74%
Baronie 2+ goals
39%
Baronie 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Dongen (draw refunded)
69%
Baronie (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dongen at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.49 · 47 matches

Baronie away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.56 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dongen attack 1.60 + Baronie defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.08

Baronie attack 1.21 + Dongen defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Dongen scores more
54%
level
21%
Baronie scores more
25%

Dongen at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Dongen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: Dongen 1–2 Baronie

Baronie beat Dongen 2-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark De Biezen in Dongen.