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Dong Thap vs Phú Thọ — V.League 2 2020

Dong Thap
Dong Thap
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Phú Thọ
Phú Thọ
3/30/2024V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 13Sân vận động Cao Lãnh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Dong Thap52%
×Draw27%
Phú Thọ20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dong Thap
1.41
Phú Thọ
0.77

Dong Thap creates 83% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 33 away

creates per match

Dong Thap
1.05
Phú Thọ
0.73

allows per match

Dong Thap
0.82
Phú Thọ
1.76

finishing

Dong Thap+0.00on par
Phú Thọ+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dong Thap ↓

Phú Thọ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Dong Thap or draw
80%
Dong Thap or Phú Thọ
73%
Draw or Phú Thọ
48%

Winning margin

Dong Thap wins by 2+
26%
Phú Thọ wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dong Thap 1+ goals
76%
Dong Thap 2+ goals
41%
Dong Thap 3+ goals
17%
Phú Thọ 1+ goals
54%
Phú Thọ 2+ goals
18%
Phú Thọ 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dong Thap (draw refunded)
72%
Phú Thọ (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dong Thap at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.82 · 38 matches

Phú Thọ away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dong Thap attack 1.05 + Phú Thọ defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.41

Phú Thọ attack 0.73 + Dong Thap defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dong Thap scores more
52%
level
27%
Phú Thọ scores more
20%

Dong Thap at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dong Thap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 2: Dong Thap 1–0 Phú Thọ

Dong Thap beat Phú Thọ 1-0 in V.League 2 on March 30, 2024.

The match was played at Sân vận động Cao Lãnh in Cao Lanh.