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Dong Thap vs Can Tho — V.League 2 2020

Dong Thap
Dong Thap
FT
1 – 0
Can Tho
Can Tho
10/21/2020V.League 2V.League 2 · Relegation Round - 3Sân vận động Cao Lãnh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Dong Thap49%
×Draw26%
Can Tho25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dong Thap
1.50
Can Tho
0.98

Dong Thap creates 53% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 22 away

creates per match

Dong Thap
1.05
Can Tho
1.14

allows per match

Dong Thap
0.82
Can Tho
1.95

finishing

Dong Thap+0.00on par
Can Tho+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dong Thap ↓

Can Tho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dong Thap or draw
75%
Dong Thap or Can Tho
74%
Draw or Can Tho
51%

Winning margin

Dong Thap wins by 2+
25%
Can Tho wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dong Thap 1+ goals
78%
Dong Thap 2+ goals
44%
Dong Thap 3+ goals
19%
Can Tho 1+ goals
62%
Can Tho 2+ goals
26%
Can Tho 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dong Thap (draw refunded)
67%
Can Tho (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dong Thap at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.82 · 38 matches

Can Tho away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dong Thap attack 1.05 + Can Tho defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.50

Can Tho attack 1.14 + Dong Thap defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dong Thap scores more
49%
level
26%
Can Tho scores more
25%

Dong Thap at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dong Thap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 2: Dong Thap 1–0 Can Tho

Dong Thap beat Can Tho 1-0 in V.League 2 on October 21, 2020.

The match was played at Sân vận động Cao Lãnh in Cao Lanh.