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Dong Thap vs An Giang — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Dong Thap
Dong Thap
FT
1 – 2
An Giang
An Giang
1/10/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dong Thap40%
×Draw27%
An Giang33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dong Thap
1.33
An Giang
1.17

Dong Thap creates 14% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Dong Thap
0.67
An Giang
1.00

allows per match

Dong Thap
1.33
An Giang
2.00

finishing

Dong Thap+0.00on par
An Giang+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dong Thap ↓

An Giang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dong Thap or draw
67%
Dong Thap or An Giang
73%
Draw or An Giang
60%

Winning margin

Dong Thap wins by 2+
18%
An Giang wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dong Thap 1+ goals
74%
Dong Thap 2+ goals
38%
Dong Thap 3+ goals
15%
An Giang 1+ goals
69%
An Giang 2+ goals
33%
An Giang 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dong Thap (draw refunded)
55%
An Giang (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dong Thap at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

An Giang away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dong Thap attack 0.67 + An Giang defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

An Giang attack 1.00 + Dong Thap defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dong Thap scores more
40%
level
27%
An Giang scores more
33%

Dong Thap at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dong Thap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dong Thap vs An Giang

An Giang beat Dong Thap 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 10, 2020.