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Doncaster vs Swindon Town — League One 2018

Doncaster
Doncaster
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Swindon Town
Swindon Town
12/15/2020League OneLeague One · Round 18The Keepmoat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Doncaster50%
×Draw23%
Swindon Town27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doncaster
1.81
Swindon Town
1.27

Doncaster creates 43% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 23 away

creates per match

Doncaster
1.40
Swindon Town
1.30

allows per match

Doncaster
1.23
Swindon Town
2.22

finishing

Doncaster+0.00on par
Swindon Town+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Swindon Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw
73%
Doncaster or Swindon Town
77%
Draw or Swindon Town
50%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+
28%
Swindon Town wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals
84%
Doncaster 2+ goals
54%
Doncaster 3+ goals
27%
Swindon Town 1+ goals
72%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
36%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)
65%
Swindon Town (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 1.40 + Swindon Town defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.81

Swindon Town attack 1.30 + Doncaster defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Doncaster scores more
50%
level
23%
Swindon Town scores more
27%

Doncaster at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Doncaster vs Swindon Town

Doncaster beat Swindon Town 2-1 in League One on December 15, 2020.

The match was played at The Keepmoat Stadium in Doncaster, South Yorkshire.