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Doncaster vs Sunderland — League One 2018

Doncaster
Doncaster
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Sunderland
Sunderland
12/29/2019League OneLeague One · Round 24The Keepmoat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Doncaster36%
×Draw27%
Sunderland36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doncaster
1.25
Sunderland
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 112 home / 90 away

creates per match

Doncaster
1.40
Sunderland
1.28

allows per match

Doncaster
1.23
Sunderland
1.09

finishing

Doncaster+0.00on par
Sunderland+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Sunderland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw
64%
Doncaster or Sunderland
73%
Draw or Sunderland
64%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+
16%
Sunderland wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals
71%
Doncaster 2+ goals
36%
Doncaster 3+ goals
13%
Sunderland 1+ goals
71%
Sunderland 2+ goals
36%
Sunderland 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)
50%
Sunderland (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

Sunderland away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.09 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 1.40 + Sunderland defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sunderland attack 1.28 + Doncaster defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Doncaster scores more
36%
level
27%
Sunderland scores more
36%

Doncaster at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Doncaster vs Sunderland

Sunderland beat Doncaster 2-1 in League One on December 29, 2019.

The match was played at The Keepmoat Stadium in Doncaster, South Yorkshire.