Doncaster 3–1 Milton Keynes Dons: Result & Stats

Doncaster

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Milton Keynes Dons

B. Hanlan 33'

L. Molyneux 27'

D. Ajayi 18'

K. Thompson-Sommers 29'

7/19/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Doncaster53%

×Draw22%

Milton Keynes Dons25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DoncasterExpected goals in this matchMilton Keynes Dons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.33

Doncaster

2.02

Milton Keynes Dons

1.33

Doncaster creates 52% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

2.25

creates per match

1.67

1.00

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Doncaster

2.25

Milton Keynes Dons

1.67

allows per match

Doncaster

1.00

Milton Keynes Dons

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Doncaster+0.00on par

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw

75%

Doncaster or Milton Keynes Dons

78%

Draw or Milton Keynes Dons

47%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+

31%

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals

87%

Doncaster 2+ goals

60%

Doncaster 3+ goals

33%

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

74%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

38%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)

68%

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 2.25 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.02

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.67 + Doncaster defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Doncaster scores more

53%

level

22%

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

25%

Doncaster at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

27'

29'

33'

46'

Z. Westbrooke← H. Clifton

Doncaster

Milton

15

34

5

32

35

10

24

20

⚽

11

7

19

29

2

5

7

⚽

Molyneux

8

Broadbent

9

⚽

Hanlan

11

Gibson

15

▼

Clifton

19

⚽

Ajayi

23

Senior

27

Grehan

Manager: Grant Samuel McCann

46'▲Z. Westbrooke←▼H. Clifton

Doncaster substitutes

41Bryant24Westbrooke34Cashmore35Middleton36Murray

Manager: Paul Warne

Match Recap: Doncaster vs Milton Keynes Dons

Doncaster beat Milton Keynes Dons 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 19, 2025.

Goals: D. Ajayi (18'), L. Molyneux (27'), K. Thompson-Sommers (29'), B. Hanlan (33').

Doncaster vs Milton Keynes Dons — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Doncaster vs Milton Keynes Dons