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Doncaster vs Lincoln — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Doncaster
Doncaster
Preview
14:00
Lincoln
Lincoln
8/1/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
Big match
56%
Doncaster
model favours
56%26%18%

Both teams score in 70% of Doncaster’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
41%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Doncaster56%
×Draw26%
Lincoln18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doncaster
1.54
Lincoln
0.75

Doncaster creates 105% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Doncaster
2.25
Lincoln
0.50

allows per match

Doncaster
1.00
Lincoln
0.83

finishing

Doncaster+0.00on par
Lincoln+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Lincoln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw
82%
Doncaster or Lincoln
74%
Draw or Lincoln
44%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+
30%
Lincoln wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals
79%
Doncaster 2+ goals
45%
Doncaster 3+ goals
20%
Lincoln 1+ goals
53%
Lincoln 2+ goals
17%
Lincoln 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)
76%
Lincoln (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Lincoln away — creates 0.50, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 2.25 + Lincoln defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.54

Lincoln attack 0.50 + Doncaster defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Doncaster scores more
56%
level
26%
Lincoln scores more
18%

Doncaster at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Doncaster score first in 60% of matches
  • 31% of Doncaster’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Doncaster
WWWWD
Lincoln
LWLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Doncaster host Lincoln

August 1, 2026: Doncaster take on Lincoln in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.