Doncaster 2–0 Forest Green: Result & Stats

Doncaster

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Forest Green

R. Keogh 86' (OG)

L. Molyneux 62'

3/23/2024

League Two · Round 40Eco-Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Doncaster38%

×Draw26%

Forest Green36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DoncasterExpected goals in this matchForest Green

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.30

Doncaster

1.34

Forest Green

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 113 away

1.47

creates per match

1.42

1.18

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Doncaster

1.47

Forest Green

1.42

allows per match

Doncaster

1.18

Forest Green

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Doncaster+0.00on par

Forest Green+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Forest Green →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw

64%

Doncaster or Forest Green

74%

Draw or Forest Green

62%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+

17%

Forest Green wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals

74%

Doncaster 2+ goals

39%

Doncaster 3+ goals

15%

Forest Green 1+ goals

73%

Forest Green 2+ goals

37%

Forest Green 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)

51%

Forest Green (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.18 · 74 matches

Forest Green away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.22 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 1.47 + Forest Green defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.34

Forest Green attack 1.42 + Doncaster defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Doncaster scores more

38%

level

26%

Forest Green scores more

36%

Doncaster at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

L. Molyneux

Doncaster · M

8.2

Match Events

45+1'

Alex Gorrin

46'

C. Jones← Álex Gorrín

48'

62'

63'

68'

72'

73'

M. Biamou← J. Ironside

73'

R. Brown← H. Bunker

74'

F. Dabo← J. Moore-Taylor

74'

J. Garrick← E. Osadebe

86'

R. KeoghOwn goal

87'

G. Broadbent← O. Bailey

87'

K. Hurst← H. Adelakun

88'

Z. Westbrooke← M. Craig

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DoncasterForest

Overview

66%Possession34%

14Total Shots3

3Corners0

10Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots3

6On Target0

4Off Target2

4Blocked1

8Inside Box1

6Outside Box2

Passing

66%Possession34%

566Total Passes288

457Accurate Passes172

81%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides6