Doncaster 0–4 Fleetwood Town: Result & Stats

Doncaster

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Fleetwood Town

10/6/2018

League One · Round 12Keepmoat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Doncaster42%

×Draw26%

Fleetwood Town32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DoncasterExpected goals in this matchFleetwood Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.21

Doncaster

1.42

Fleetwood Town

1.21

Doncaster creates 17% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 134 away

1.40

creates per match

1.18

1.23

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Doncaster

1.40

Fleetwood Town

1.18

allows per match

Doncaster

1.23

Fleetwood Town

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Doncaster+0.00on par

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Fleetwood Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw

68%

Doncaster or Fleetwood Town

74%

Draw or Fleetwood Town

58%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+

20%

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals

76%

Doncaster 2+ goals

41%

Doncaster 3+ goals

17%

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

70%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

34%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)

57%

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.43 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 1.40 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.42

Fleetwood Town attack 1.18 + Doncaster defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Doncaster scores more

42%

level

26%

Fleetwood Town scores more

32%

Doncaster at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff