Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Doncaster vs Crewe — League One 2018

Doncaster
Doncaster
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Crewe
Crewe
4/9/2022League OneLeague One · Round 42Eco-Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Doncaster48%
×Draw26%
Crewe26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doncaster
1.50
Crewe
1.04

Doncaster creates 44% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 46 away

creates per match

Doncaster
1.40
Crewe
0.85

allows per match

Doncaster
1.23
Crewe
1.61

finishing

Doncaster+0.00on par
Crewe+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Crewe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw
74%
Doncaster or Crewe
74%
Draw or Crewe
52%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+
24%
Crewe wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals
78%
Doncaster 2+ goals
44%
Doncaster 3+ goals
19%
Crewe 1+ goals
65%
Crewe 2+ goals
28%
Crewe 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)
65%
Crewe (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

Crewe away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.61 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 1.40 + Crewe defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.50

Crewe attack 0.85 + Doncaster defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Doncaster scores more
48%
level
26%
Crewe scores more
26%

Doncaster at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Doncaster 2–0 Crewe

Doncaster beat Crewe 2-0 in League One on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Eco-Power Stadium in Doncaster, South Yorkshire.