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Crewe vs Doncaster — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Doncaster
Doncasteradvanced
5/6/2024League TwoLeague Two · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsMornflake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Crewe42%
×Draw25%
Doncaster32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.50
Doncaster
1.28

Crewe creates 17% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 73 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.59
Doncaster
1.38

allows per match

Crewe
1.19
Doncaster
1.42

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par
Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Doncaster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
68%
Crewe or Doncaster
75%
Draw or Doncaster
58%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
21%
Doncaster wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
78%
Crewe 2+ goals
44%
Crewe 3+ goals
19%
Doncaster 1+ goals
72%
Doncaster 2+ goals
37%
Doncaster 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
57%
Doncaster (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.19 · 135 matches

Doncaster away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.42 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.59 + Doncaster defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.50

Doncaster attack 1.38 + Crewe defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Crewe scores more
42%
level
25%
Doncaster scores more
32%

Crewe at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Crewe 0–2 Doncaster

Doncaster beat Crewe 2-0 in League Two on May 6, 2024.

The match was played at Mornflake Stadium in Crewe, Cheshire.